Rethinking Iraq

Dec. 29th, 2006

The mainstream media is in the midst of another feeding frenzy it seems, over the war in Iraq. The goal appears to be “get Bush”, and is being aided by a lot of politicians trying to get their names in the headlines. Now we’re “rethinking” the war, and happily hunting for scapegoats. Faulty Intelligence was the first thing we heard about when the war didn’t go as planned.

I will agree that the reasoning for the war in Iraq was based in part on erroneous intelligence information. But… that data was deemed accurate enough by the intelligence agencies, the presidential advisors, the President, the Members of Congress, and the news media, to go to war over! A year or so later we find that things weren’t exactly as advertised, and immediately start blaming the President and the CIA for all sorts of things. No, I don’t blame the President for “faulty intelligence”, after all, the system can’t be right all the time no matter how hard they try.

Unfortunately the public view of the CIA is that of a bunch of incompetent klutzes stumbling around in the dark. Very few people appreciate just how much of a class act the agency really is. Consider that they have to function without many of the tools they need, under bloodthirsty congressional (political) oversight, in accordance with the law of the land, within their (Classified) budget, with tight scrutiny from a somewhat rabid news media, and on top of everything else they’ve got political appointees and a herd of federal bureaucrats running most of the show. It’s a wonder anything gets done, and yet the CIA is one of the best (and most accurate) intelligence agencies in today’s world!

What I do blame the President (and Mr. Rumsfield) for, is neglecting a very old military maxim, “No battle plan survives first contact with the enemy”. It would appear that somebody in the defense department forgot to make a “Plan B’ for Iraq, and the national command authority (the President), didn’t think of it either. A couple of centuries ago Karl Von Clausewitz wrote about the term “The fog of war”, a polite way of saying that when the battle starts, things get screwed-up real fast. That description pertains to the intelligence game as well as to military matters.

Regardless of the reason, the invasion of Iraq was a purely military matter, and overall it went quite well. The problems arose after the war phase, with the government (and public) failure to recognize the cultural problems facing the US authorities in Iraq. For one thing, we expected the Iraqis to jump right up and embrace “Democracy”, forgetting that they have had absolutely no experience with that political concept in their several thousand year long history! The Arabic peoples have always been ruled by tribal chiefs, kings, dictators, occupying powers, and assorted religious authorities. Offhand, I doubt they have a word for “democracy” in the Arabic language!

Assuming that the local yokels will welcome an invading army with cheers and flags is a common enough error throughout history, that I’m rather surprised that the US Government also fell for it in planning the Iraqi campaign. We expected the Sunni Muslims of Iraq to welcome us with open arms when we threw out the ruling Shi’a Muslim Baa’th party controlled by Saddam Hussein. Instead, the Sunni’s (85% of the Arabic population) are doing their best to kill off the Shi’a (15% of the Arabic population), in a full blown civil war. Then of course the Shi’a are returning the favor, in spades. Being nice guys and trying to keep the peace, the US armed forces are caught in the middle and paying the price. We forgot that the Qur’an, the Muslim holy book, teaches Muslims to convert the infidel, and to kill all those who don’t see things their way. And both Islamic sects see the other as being infidels. The US Army does a real good job of killing people and breaking things, but they really aren’t trained to keep two warring religious factions apart.

Now we hear that the US should just pull out of Iraq and come home. A nice idea of course, but hardly practical under the circumstances. If we did pull out, I’d expect to see the Kurds (the third leg of the Iraqi population triad) to come roaring south with the intent of carving a homeland out of Iraq. And that would bring Arabic speakers from all over the mid-east into the fight, with a whole lot of tanks, guns, and jet fighters. Welcome to a full scale Donnybrook Fair in the world’s biggest sandbox.

Like the war in Vietnam, we’re faced with a political conflict that requires a political solution. All the military can do is hold the ground and keep on bleeding while the politicians keep arguing over what to do next. Yes, the situation can be defused, but it’s going to take a Muslim army to hold the ground, while Muslim politicians work out the details. And that of course carries its own risks.

Personally I think this country would be far better served if our politicians would quit seeing us as the world’s policeman, and if the US media somehow got a transfusion of reality. Both could then come down from the rather vapid utopian wonderland they seem to be living in.