Election Aftermath

Nov. 17, 2006

President Bush wasn't on the ballot this year, but all the same, the election was about him and his policies, with the two primary questions being the war in Iraq and whether or not voters would pry his fingers loose from at least some of the levers of power. The far left is claiming the Democratic victory as the American people totally refuting President Bush and his policies. The far right is blaming their losses on Congressional scandals and the like. Somewhere in the middle are the moderates, noting that mid-term elections normally see a shift in congressional control, and commenting that the new democratic majority isn’t as large as some people seem to think it is. I tend to think the moderates on both sides of the aisle are going to find themselves a very important power bloc.

All in all I’d prefer not trying to foretell the future, as I’m certainly not a psychic, and my crystal ball doesn’t show me anything but Santa Claus standing in a snow storm. However, I’ll stick my neck out and say that we won’t see any major changes over the next two years. Certainly there’ll be a lot of political hot air expended over inconsequential problems, but don’t look for any sweeping changes.

The US might pull out of Afghanistan as NATO forces continue to take over, but the civil war in Iraq will continue, with US troops still caught in the middle. Somebody will get rich building six-hundred miles of fence in the southwest (but it won’t be Halliburton). The self destructive march towards a North American Union and eventual globalization will continue. Budget deficits will keep rising, and the press will continue its feeding frenzy over congressional scandals. The Democratic victory certainly doesn't guarantee a change in government policy either, as the President has very broad foreign policy authority. Pretty much business as usual along the Potomac.

The Constitution clearly says that Congress and the White House are co-equal branches of government, but so far the administration hasn’t been real big on constitutional niceties. Even with a docile Republican majority controlling Congress, the President has been in the habit of declaring that he has the right to disobey whatever law he has just signed, whether it's a law prohibiting torture or a law requiring that he hire qualified people to run FEMA. Just imagine, then, what he'll do if faced with demands for information from, say, Congressional Democrats investigating war profiteering. Actually, we don't have to imagine: A White House strategist has already told Time magazine that the administration plans a "cataclysmic fight to the death" if the Democrats try to issue subpoenas in the course of congressional investigations. That will certainly keep Congress busy for months on end, and bodes ill for any constructive progress.

Generally I’m not much into the “gloom and doom” predictions so prevalent in our society today, but for the immediate future I really don’t see much of anything to cheer about either. The cost of living will, as always, continue to rise, taxes will go up as will government expenditures, individual disposable income will continue to decline, the rich will get richer and I rather doubt I’ll be in any position to replace my old pick-up truck. Homeland Security will keep looking for vaguely defined terrorist threats, the NSA will continue monitoring our telephone calls, and the CIA will still be bickering with the FBI.

On the upside, perhaps the Mariners will win the World Series…

There are a good many things that desperately need to be done to get our country back on track. I would hope that Congress will once again exert its constitutional authority, but unfortunately, with the political animosity between a Republican administration and now a Democratic majority in Congress, I don’t really expect to see anything for the next two years but recriminations, political revenge, and a rather gory cat fight on Capitol Hill. Perhaps some good will come from this political power shuffle, but somehow I don’t have a lot of hope for it.