Palin's Tea Party

In the year since the last general election, the national media has been working overtime hashing over what to them is a major challenge, is Sarah Palin going to run for president or not? ‘Course Sara just smiles coyly, and leaves the possibility open. I don’t have an inside line to the Palin organization, so like everybody else I can only guess, but as a "gut feeling", I’d say yes, she probably will run in 2012. (The potential for error on a wild guess of this nature is rather large you understand.)

When John McCain announced that Sarah would be his running mate, a lot of quite predictable things happened. Most of the country was left scratching their heads and saying "Sarah who?" Following their past experiences with women as VP candidates, the Democrats snickered and went on planning Mr. O’s "change", and Hillary probably wept a bit as well. From the halls of the RNC came the sounds of weeping and wailing, along with great gnashing of teeth and tearing of hair. And of course the mainstream media immediately began bashing the "Hick Chick" from the wild and wooly west who had never attended an eastern Ivy League finishing school. Sarah on the other hand gathered up a new wardrobe (as women are prone to do), and proceeded to make an acceptance speech that completely electrified a large part of the nations Republican voters. When the public reaction to that speech was recognized, she suddenly became a major threat to established politicians everywhere, and "everybody" was out for her head, including the media with their vicious and completely uncalled for attacks on her family. (Attacks that continue to this day.) When the dust settled following the election, Sarah left the questions about her political aspirations unanswered, and the door open, but now she seems to have made her first public move.

Sarah Palin has launched an effort to become the leader of the Tea Party movement, a move with a major political upside for the former governor. Her positioning could secure the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, which she is widely believed to be eyeing. And the Tea Party is a natural for her, where her populist anti-Washington rhetoric and working mom image, have made her a favorite since the grass-roots activists on the scene last year. The recent National Tea Party Convention in Nashville came under fire because of it’s high prices comparatively small turnout, but the real convention occurred on September 12, 2009 when hundreds of thousands of ordinary people from all across America marched on the U.S. Capitol, saying "No" to Mr. Obama and the loss of liberty that accompanies big government. The real Tea Party convention occurs all across the country, when small groups of people come together at town meetings to ask questions of their elected officials – questions those officials are often unable or unwilling to answer. And those people are the ones most attracted to Sarah’s possible campaign. Interestingly enough, 35 percent of independents have a favorable impression of the Tea Party movement, as do an amazing three-quarters of Republicans. Palin also reinforced the impression that the Tea Partiers are the most desired bloc of the conservative electorate when she turned down an invitation to speak at the Conservative Political Action Conference, a "must-attend" for establishment conservatives and Republicans. Instead, she chose to speak at the Nashville TEA Convention.

But embracing the movement could be dangerous, as the rather chaotic collection of local groups making up the movement may not accept her… or anyone else… as their leader. But still, Palin has endeared herself to a lot of tea partiers by endorsing several movement candidates against GOP establishment candidates. If she accepts the leadership she also has to accept the risks of a movement that is so decentralized that there is little accountability, no rules and no agenda other than anger with the establishment. Yet that anti-establishment anger dates clear back to Teddy Roosevelt’s "Bull Moose" party, continued through the days of George Wallace and Ross Perot, and was last seen with the Ron Paul campaign. And the dissatisfaction with business as usual gets bigger and bigger every year as the mainstream Republicans and Democrats meld into a single "Big Government" party.

For the tea party to be successful, it needs a leader. And I think that Sarah Palin with her "real life ideals" could well become that leader. Run Sarah, Run!