US Break-up?

Back around 1985 I read a magazine article reportedly drawn from a CIA report, that predicted the break-up of the Soviet Union in the then not to distant future. This prediction was based on a number of factors including among others, social unrest, widespread government corruption, and massive overspending. At that time such a collapse was nearly unthinkable to Soviet citizens and to most Americans as well. Yet the Soviet collapse began early in 1985 when after years of wasteful spending economic growth was at a standstill. Failed attempts at reform, a stagnant economy, and the endless war in Afghanistan led to widespread public discontent. The increased political and social freedom instituted by Mikhail Gorbachev allowed public criticism of the regime. Several of the SSR’s began resisting Moscow’s control, which weakened the central government. The trade gap finally emptied the treasury and led to national bankruptcy. All this severely undermined the the Communist Party's power base, particularly after a disintegrating alliance among the Warsaw Pact nations accelerated, leaving the Soviet Union unable to depend upon its client states. Most of us can remember what finally happened in 1991.

And now it would seem that the Russians are returning the favor. A professor at the diplomatic academy of Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said “the U.S. will break into six parts because of the nation's financial crisis.” "The dollar isn't secured by anything," Igor Panarin said in a recent interview. "The country's foreign debt has grown like an avalanche; this is a pyramid, which has to collapse." He continued with “the financial crisis will worsen, unemployment will rise and people will lose their savings -- factors that will cause the country's breakup.” "Dissatisfaction is growing, and it is only being held back at the moment by the elections, and the hope that President- elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," he said. "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles." Panarin’s prediction is that the U.S. will break up into six parts - the Pacific coast, with its growing Chinese population; the Southwest with its Hispanics; Texas, where independence movements are on the rise; the Atlantic coast, with its distinct and separate mentality; the poorer central states with their large Native American populations; and the northern tier, where Canadian influence is strong.

For seriously predicting the break-up in June or July of 2010, Panarin has become a media celebrity. Hardly a day goes by without another interview for the KGB-trained, Kremlin-backed senior analyst. Few Americans paid any attention to his views until the Wall Street Journal published them on Page 1 of the Dec. 29, 2008 issue, and within hours the U.S. media began an indignant counterattack. Time magazines business and economics columnist Justin Fox wrote "The man knows nothing at all about American regional differences." “South Carolina is like Massachusetts?” “Tennessee will join with France? Idaho will find something to love about California? Wyoming will snuggle up to Ottawa? Alabama will happily report to Mexico City? Yeah, right!" I’ll agree with Mr. Fox, Mr. Panarin certainly doesn’t understand our regionalism!

Most Americans aren’t very concerned about some “foreigner” predicting American disunion, revolution, or overthrow of the government, as that happens all the time. Face it, at any given moment we have a number of home grown (generally rural based), movements that want to secede because they feel cheated or powerless in the face of the large voting population of the urban areas, and generally these rural areas are being overpowered by the big cities. An example? Mr. Obama was definitely not elected by the rural folks of this nation. Still, Prof. Panarin is not a fringe or cult figure either. He’s a former KGB analyst, and current dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats, he lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations. Asked why he expected the U.S. to break up into separate parts, he said: "A whole range of reasons. Firstly, the financial problems in the U.S. will get worse. Millions of citizens there have lost their savings. Prices and unemployment are on the rise. General Motors and Ford are on the verge of collapse, and this means that whole cities will be left without work. Governors are already insistently demanding money from the federal center. Dissatisfaction is growing, and at the moment it is only being held back by the elections and the hope that Obama can work miracles. But by spring, it will be clear that there are no miracles." Humm… I don’t expect to see any miracles either…

Nor is Mr. Panarin alone, another forecaster of doom for the US is Dimitry Orlov, an American who was born in Leningrad and immigrated to the United States at the age of 12. He was a witness to the Soviet collapse in the course of several visits to Russia between the late eighties and mid-nineties. He is an engineer with a BS in Computer Engineering, a leading Peak Oil theorist, and an MA in Applied Linguistics. Mr. Orlov sees many similarities between the collapse of the Soviet Union and the United States today. He states that “many of the problems that sunk the Soviet Union are now endangering the United States as well. Such as a huge, well-equipped, very expensive military, with no clear mission, bogged down in fighting Muslim insurgents. Such as energy shortfalls linked to peaking oil production. Such as a persistently unfavorable trade balance, resulting in runaway foreign debt. Add to that a delusional self-image, an inflexible ideology, and an unresponsive political system.” Not a real pretty picture is it?

We do have a much stronger sense of 'National identity' than did the citizens of the Soviet Union, and with that our country might well survive a total economic collapse. But that identity is weakened every day by “cultural diversity” and uncontrolled immigration. With that, we’re divided today more than anything seen since the civil war era. The US government is rapidly approaching bankruptcy, our middle class is quickly disappearing, and the gap between rich and poor widens daily. The cost of living is climbing like the proverbial “homesick angel”, individual income can’t seem to keep pace, and unemployment is skyrocketing. Our national infrastructure is rapidly wearing out and not being replaced. The long “War on the west” continues unabated. Our constitutional rights and religious beliefs are under continuous attack by the radical left, morality seems to be a dieing trait, which leaves crime and corruption running rampant. Partisan gridlock and bureaucratic inertia stifle any serious attempt to solve our problems. Finally, our dependency on government largess does not bode well for any of us. I certainly don’t know what will happen next, but I do know is that the United States of today is a far cry from the nation that survived the 1929 depression and then went on to victory in WW II.

Do I want to see any of this happen? Certainly not, I like this country, warts and all. Could it happen? Well, yes it could, we are after all in serious trouble despite the promise of “change”, and no “Empire”, American or otherwise, lasts forever.